Public interest in the ongoing slugfest that is the Conservative Party Leadership Election is trending to zero. This is partly because everyone has now cottoned on the fact that Liz Truss is going to win, and partly because the public can sees their fate as in the hands of a tiny percentage of them, who appear a self-selecting oligarchy. I’m referring of course to the 150,000 odd members of the Conservative Party to whom Sunak and Truss have been appealing.
Truss is clearly winning the battle for the Conservative electorate (the slightly revival in Sunak’s odds this time last week , seems no more than a means for value extraction from punters betting on Truss).
Whether Truss is winning the battle for the public’s support, is hard to know.
The Times, in a YouGov poll, finds that two thirds of voters believe the next prime minister should concentrate on inflation rather than tax cuts, sending a warning signal to Liz Truss.
The latest opinion polls are showing “mid-term blues” for the Conservative party. This from politics.co.uk
The Labour lead over the Conservatives is currently trending at 7.3%. Polling averages extrapolated in the three weeks since Boris Johnson announced his resignation on 7th July, place Labour on 41.3%, the Conservatives on 31.1%, and the Liberal Democrats on 11.4%.
If a General Election was held today, and the public vote reflected the average polling position in the three weeks since 7 July, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons:
But whether this is weariness with a Conservative Government or a reaction against a Truss win , is hard to work out.
What I suspect , is that politics is likely , after September 5th to be focussing much more on the needs of the British people as we approach the impending hikes in our cost of living. This will be a welcome relief from the focus on who will lead us through what looks like a tough 2 years to the next general election.
My view is that the last four weeks have left a sour note with the public. Love for the party in Government isn’t strong, but when the opposition should be rampant, the priority given to Gordon Brown (over Keir Starmer) suggests that interest in the opposition’s point of view , is not with the parliamentary Labour Party.
Perhaps we have better things on our mind!