Some year’s ago, Mrs May reminded the Conservatives that some people thought them the nasty party, this election she’s reminded us that they are the hapless party. They have been opposed by a Labour Party who’s policies are under-costed (IFS reckon they will add £75bn to Governmental spending( and under provisioned, (IFS reckon that at best Labour’s tax changes will bring in £50bn).
The Labour party have not even talked about stopping the Tory’s planned cuts in benefits – the impact of which would run into further tens of billions of pounds.
Instead of debating the management of our economy in and out of Europe, the Conservatives have allowed the election to have been fought as a popularity contest between May and Corbyn – which Corbyn has won hands down. They have taken on one serious issue and have u-turned on it . For the rest, the Conservatives have simply trotted out slogans which the general public have dismissed with the scorn they deserve.
Whoever has been advising Mrs May on how to run this campaign has done a terrible job and should hang their heads in shame. May herself should never be so exposed as she has been. She has allowed herself to be hung out to dry, she can do so much better, as witnessed by her performances in parliament.
A reluctant conservative
I am voting conservative reluctantly. My natural inclination is to vote Liberal or Labour but I am voting for an agenda that the country has already agreed , the Brexit agenda.
As virtually no policy was announced in the manifesto – other than the aborted policy on social care (which I agreed with), I am not voting conservative on policy grounds. I am simply unable to come to terms with Labour policy and unable to think what a Liberal vote would mean – at a time when the country has voted to leave Europe.
I suspect that the Conservatives will win – because the Labour party will not be able to get its voters out (the kids who didn’t vote remain). I suspect that the Conservatives will win because they own the voters and Labour own the votes of those who stay at home.
If Labour can mobilise its votes then they can win. The poll’s margin for error is considerable, the polls only measure voting intentions – not the intentions to vote. Good intentions are not enough if you never make it to the booth.
But if the Labour party wins this election, it is because it has mobilised a class of people who have been de-energised from politics for some time and they will deserve our support for doing so. There are decent people in that party – including pension people like Rayner and Cunningham who I will support.
If Labour wins I will support them, but what if neither party wins. What if there is no majority. Heavens! I can see no alternative but another bloody election.
We need another election like a hole in the head.
Cameron will be remembered as the bungling idiot who led us unnecessarily out of Europe, May may be remembered as the lady who u-turned getting out of a cul-de-sac.
Either way, the Conservatives since 2015 have been hapless. They have proved themselves a party that cannot govern themselves or others.
They have imposed politics on our lives three times in two years. With politics has come horror.
We need to get on with our lives- we do not need another election and we need to led out of Europe.
Can we do without a Conservative Government? Sadly I think not,
For all this- I will be at the Conservative party in October, listening and wondering how Conservatism works for me, for pensions and for my country.
Whether they are a party in or out of Government by then I do not know. I can only conclude that they are the better of two evils.
Essential reading
Quietroom’ s analysis of the election manifestos; not an analysis of the policy, but of how ideas are conveyed https://quietroom.co.uk/general/manifesto-gets-vote/
Henry
If an IFA presented the advice on BEXIT given the incomplete reasons why letter you would be the first to criticise the lack of transparency and evil and greed behind the advice.
In reality most of the poor advice, as in this case, is the ignorance of those giving advice.
Liberal is the only party coming close to a sensible way of deciding once the reasons why letter is complete.
I like your analysis, even though I don’t agree with you on who to vote for.
Whatever the result I’m leaving the country. In fact I’m on a ferry in Harwich typing this. I will be back though, and I’ve sent in my postal vote. I hope I come back to a country without a controlling Tory government. I don’t want to live under a government happy to abolish human rights, take money from the poorest to give to the wealthy and drive the NHS into the hands of US healthcare companies. This is a party that’s running a campaign which refuses to spell out figures or policies but just says it’s going to be strong. My party, right or wrong, is no basis for government.
Henry. She is making a complete mess of it by bring in her ‘agenda side issues’ that have taken the main reason for an election that I disagree with as she had already a mandate to carry through the Brexit policy. I thought she was supposed to be a ‘safe pair of hands’ but it appears not and seems to be a ‘creature of impulse’! So we have ended up with some outlandish things ‘perhaps not even written on a back of an envelope’ that have never been put out for consultation. Looking at these unexpected manifestos from all the candidates in my area, I find that they have all unacceptable policise that I cannot ‘live with’. NOT IN MY NAME and for the first time I shall not vote for any of them.
Peter D Beattie
Whether you vote Conservative or not, please vote. It’s a privilege that people have fought for, are still fighting for, and too few are given.
I get your concerns, but I think the majority of parties have done well given there was only seven weeks. In 2015, seven weeks was about the time between final registration and voting.
I think calling cameron a bungling idiot is little harsh. He promised a referendum and delivered. He also promised fundamental reform of the UK’s relationship with the EU and treaty change but the the EU said “Nein” and the British didn’t want ever closer union. In this blog his administration should be remembered more favourably for auto-enrolment,the living wage,rising tax thresholds and pension reform.
Shocked by this Henry, many in the pensions industry have expressed concerns about the retrospective taxation they expect the Conservatives to apply to Cash Transfers, so I thought you’d know as well as any that there are tricks being played.
A point on the IFS: the Conservatives were also criticised, the IFS believe the Conservatives will have to borrow and spend more than they’re admitting to. That’s part of why I’m supporting Labour – they have costed their policies, the Conservatives haven’t even attempted to. The Conservatives have already borrowed more in the last 7 years than was spent on a resuce package after the mortgage crisis, and Labour borrowed in 13 years of government. The Conservatives have borrowed £700bn of our £1.7bn debt within the last 7 years. We’ve been downgraded by both Moody and Poors, and Finch – and they’ve made it clear (back in 2012) that this was because of austerity.
20,000 police officers cut; 40,000 PCSOs; 20,000 from the army; 5,000 from the navy, May as Home Secretary for 6 years, and now three terror attacks in 3 months. They’ve failed on security.
The NHS cuts are so bad that Stephen Hawking is worried that h would not have survived under a Conservative government.
The school cuts will see class sizes increase, teachers lose their jobs, and quailty of education go down. If we aren’t training our workforce, we will need to rely on immigration – meaning once again that she’ll miss her target.
And you know my views on their homelessness “initiatives”. It’s disgusting that they’ve introduced the Homelessness Reduction Act to simply excuse them from placing 11,000 kids at risk of homelessness the following month. Housing Benefit at 18 is the only reason that I’m still alive and have been able to achieve what I have. I was homeless for years, and even hostels need paying.
Debating Brexit: why should we trust her to negotiate with 27 member states when she can’t even turn up to leaders’ debates? She isn’t even communicating with David Davies. 2 hours before he appeared on Question Time, she committed to meeting the immigration target within the next Parliament, Davies then (unwittingly) followed that up on QT by saying that meeting the target within the next target was “impossible” and “simply said to give them something to aim for over a longer term”.
On the popularity contest: she hasn’t “allowed” the election to be swayed by that – she made it happen. Listen to the amount of times that she talks about “her” manifesto, government, and party – while Corbyn talks about “our” manifesto, government and party. Think what you will of Corbyn, but he allows his MPs to have a voice. The same can’t be said of Theresa May. She’ll botch this term, just as she botched this campaign.
You’re partly right about the advisers, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill do nothing but bully the MPs out of expressing any opinion which disagrees with Theresa. However the campaign adviser is Jim Messina, who was key to both David Cameron, and Barack Obama’s very successful campaigns.
Theresa isn’t losing because of her advisers, she’s losing because she’s a poor leader, and just as bad a Prime Minister.
Sorry to disagree with you so strongly, but we need to make June the end of May.
Whoops! Meant to say Davies said meeting the target would be impossible within the next “Parliament”
Josh. Well said but Labour will not be able to improve things – in fact may make it worse as they will still ‘spend spend’ with borrowed money and as you know as an individual ‘on never never’ is a course for disaster! What I do not like is that ‘she’ is ‘holding us to ransom’ by a unilateral decision that she did not have to make putting BREXIT now ‘at risk’ and using it as an opportunity of inserting ‘her personal agenda’! She is not showing any sort of ‘caring face’ for the vulnerable, or the mentally disabled,or those in similar ilk by her determination to blame them for the countries troubles and extending the abhorrent ‘means testing’! . Instead of helping our children this will cause them more cost and poverty as they would have to satisfy the debts created by poor government policies, making the housing situation worse as they would have to sell up and live elsewhere in an already crowded ‘renting market’ and at the mercy of the’ landlord sharks’ and foreign property incomers.. Where then would our stake be in this country does she really mean to look back to ‘serfdom’ This in no way can I possibly support!
Peter D Beattie
I’m glad someone else has spotted her personal agenda. Discarding the Fixed Term Parliament Act, and introducing the Great Repeal Bill to allow her to stay in Power for as long as she feels fit, and pass law without Parliament, doesn’t sit right with me.
I get your concerns about spending, and considering the fact that you’re looking at Henry’s blog, I think it’s safe to assume you’re no newbie to economics. Remember that the Wall Street Crash was exacerbated by restricting expenditure, and there wasn’t much of an uptick until Keyne’s was given the opportunity to introduce Stimulus (i.e spend on big projects like Hoover Dam etc).
Labour are the biggest contenders to keep May out, so I’m backing them. I do hope that you choose to vote, whether it’s for Labour or not. I feel that it’s one of the most valuable and important things that a person can do, particularly given how little time is needed to cast the vote.
Josh.I am not an admirer of ‘the cult of personality’! Also, I am only ‘joe blogs’ an amateur in finance but I understand enough to be able to protect my investments, property and family for which I have already paid enough tax on! I do not like a government to claw back more or for people like Gordon Brown who defrauded our pension funds and created malfeasance for which we have no recourse due to Parliamentary Sovereignty! So i am no way fond of Labour! What I want is the right policies that are ‘just not out there yet’!
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One week on Henry, do you feel your Tory vote was well used? I’m curious as a life long socialist…
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